Analysis from statistical perspective of 2019 novel coronavirus cases in Turkey: How are the things going on? Türkiye'deki 2019 Yeni Koronavirüs Vakalarının İstatistiksel Bakış Açısı ile Analizi: Süreç Nasıl Gidiyor?


TOLUK Ö. , DİNÇGEZ ÇAKMAK B., ERCAN İ., UNCU Y.

Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Medical Sciences, cilt.40, sa.2, ss.228-235, 2020 (SCI Expanded İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 40 Konu: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2020
  • Doi Numarası: 10.5336/medsci.2020-75704
  • Dergi Adı: Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Medical Sciences
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.228-235

Özet

© 2020 by Türkiye Klinikleri.Objective: There is only limited data about 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) outbreak from Turkey. Here, we aimed to analyse 2019-nCov cases in Turkey from statistical perspective. Material and Methods: Data were obtained from Republic of Turkey Ministery of Health website. The statistical modeling was performed for tests between 27 March and 18 April. The ratios were computed for according to test numbers, number of cases, number of patients in intensive care care, deaths for statistical analysis. An association between related ratios and time was analyzed by using curve estimation approach. Curves were drawn with 95% confidence interval. Results: The ratio of number of cases/number of tests were increased until 7 April and then decreased while the ratio of daily recovered cases/number of daily cases were decreased until that date and then increased. The ratio of deaths/number of cases were increased rapidly initially whereas it later increased more slowly. Although the ratio of number of intubated cases/number of cases and the ratio of number of cases in intensive care unit/number of cases have tendency to decrease in same rate, the ratio of number of deaths/number of cases in intensive care unit has tendency to increase from the beginning of pandemia until this date. Conclusion: The increasing trend of recovered cases, decreasing of deaths, requirement of intensive care unit and intubation are the main satisfactions for Turkey. The statistical modeling used here could shed some light on the control of process. While more cases than modeling estimate can show uncontrolled process, less cases could indicate well-controlled process.